Great Transition: Preface
Published: April 11, 2007, 8:38 pm
Updated: April 11, 2007, 8:38 pm
This article has been reviewed by the following Topic Editor:
Cutler J. Cleveland- “The future is always present, as a promise, a lure and a temptation.” —Karl Popper
The global transition has begun—a planetary society will take shape over the coming decades. But its outcome is in question. Current trends set the direction of departure for the journey, not its destination. Depending on how environmental and social conflicts are resolved, global development can branch into dramatically different pathways. On the dark side, it is all too easy to envision a dismal future of impoverished people, cultures and nature. Indeed, to many, this ominous possibility seems the most likely. But it is not inevitable. Humanity has the power to foresee, to choose and to act. While it may seem improbable, a transition to a future of enriched lives, human solidarity and a healthy planet is possible.
This is the story elaborated in these pages. It is a work of analysis, imagination and engagement. As analysis, it describes the historic roots, current dynamics and future perils of world development. As imagination, it offers narrative accounts of alternative long-range global scenarios, and considers their implications. As engagement, it aims to advance one of these scenarios—Great Transition—by identifying strategies, agents for change and values for a new global agenda.
The essay is the culmination of the work of the Global Scenario Group, which was convened in 1995 by the Stockholm Environment Institute as a diverse and international body to examine the requirements for a transition to sustainability. Over the years, the GSG has contributed major scenario assessments for international organizations, and collaborated with colleagues throughout the world. As the third in a trilogy, Great Transition builds on the earlier Branch Points[1], which introduced the GSG’s scenario framework, and Bending the Curve[2], which analyzed the long-term risks and prospects for sustainability within conventional development futures.
It has been two decades since the notion of “sustainable development” entered the lexicon of international jargon, inspiring countless international meetings and even some action. But it is our conviction that the first wave of sustainability activity, in progress since the Earth Summit of 1992, is insufficient to alter alarming global developments. A new wave must begin to transcend the palliatives and reforms that until now may have muted the symptoms of unsustainability, but cannot cure the disease. A new sustainability paradigm would challenge both the viability and desirability of conventional values, economic structures and social arrangements. It would offer a positive vision of a civilized form of globalization for the whole human family.
This will happen only if key sectors of world society come to understand the nature and the gravity of the challenge, and seize the opportunity to revise their agendas. Four major agents of change, acting synergistically, could drive a new sustainability paradigm. Three are global actors—intergovernmental organizations, transnational corporations and civil society acting through non-governmental organizations and spiritual communities. The fourth is less tangible, but is the critical underlying element—wide public awareness of the need for change and the spread of values that underscore quality of life, human solidarity and environmental sustainability.
Global change is accelerating and contradictions are deepening. New ways of thinking, acting and being are urgently needed. But as surely as necessity is the spur for a Great Transition, the historic opportunity to shape an equitable world of peace, freedom and sustainability is the magnet. This is the promise and lure of the twenty-first century.
Notes
- ^ Gallopín, G. A. Hammond, P. Raskin and R. Swart. 1997. Branch Points: Global Scenarios and Human Choice. Stockholm, Sweden: Stockholm Environment Institute. PoleStar Series Report No. 7.
- ^ Raskin, P., G. Gallopín, P. Gutman, A. Hammond and R. Swart 1998. Bending the Curve: Toward Global Sustainability. Stockholm, Sweden: Stockholm Environment Institute. PoleStar Series Report No. 8.
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Citation
Great Transition Initiative, Rob Swart, Robert W. Kates, Al Hammond, Pablo Gutman, Gilberto GallopÃn, Tariq Banuri, Paul Raskin (Lead Author);Cutler J. Cleveland (Topic Editor) "Great Transition: Preface". In: Encyclopedia of Earth. Eds. Cutler J. Cleveland (Washington, D.C.: Environmental Information Coalition, National Council for Science and the Environment). [First published in the Encyclopedia of Earth April 11, 2007; Last revised Date April 11, 2007; Retrieved May 26, 2013 <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Great_Transition:_Preface>
The Authors
The Great Transition Initiative (GTI) is a global network for elaborating visions and strategies for a future of enriched lives, human solidarity and a healthy planet. By addressing the need for a coherent, plausible, and shared vision, GTI complements the many admirable, but fragmented, efforts to shape our common future. GTI's vision of hope challenges conventional thinking, counters pessimism, and inspires effective action and new values. The initiative builds on the work of the Global Scena ... (Full Bio)
Dr. Rob Swart graduated from Delft University of Technology in 1980 as an environmental engineer. He received his Ph.D. on climate change risk management in 1994 at Amsterdam Free University, Earth Sciences Department. He has worked on international environmental problems since 1990, primarily at the National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) (apart from 1983-1985 on natural hazards management in the Caribbean for the World Health Organization (WHO), in 1990 on climate chang ... (Full Bio)
Robert W. Kates is a geographer and independent scholar in Trenton, Maine, and University Professor (Emeritus) at Brown University. His current research focuses on long-term trends in environment, development, and population. He is Co-Convener of the international Initiative on Science and Technology for Sustainability, an Executive Editor of Environment magazine, and Visiting Scholar at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University. I ... (Full Bio)
Al Hammond is VP for Innovation and Special Projects for the World Resources Institute, charged with catalyzing and sometimes leading development of new projects, initiatives, and tools. He also directs WRI's Development Through Enterprise project, which works with foundations, development agencies, and a number of major corporations to further the use of pro-poor business strategies and digital technologies in development. Dr. Hammond has published extensively in the scientific, policy researc ... (Full Bio)
Pablo Gutman is Senior Policy Advisor at the Macroeconomics for Sustainable Development Programme Office (MPO) of the World Wildlife Fund and manages the Payment for Ecosystem Services Program. Before joining the MPO he worked for over 20 years in environmental and development issues in more than a dozen countries, and with a variety of institutions, including universities, NGOs, governments, regional and international agencies, development banks and private business. Mr. Gutman holds a degree ... (Full Bio)
Gilberto Gallopín is Regional Adviser on Environmental Policies at the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean in Santiago, Chile. He received his Ph.D. in Ecology from Cornell University in 1969 and is an ecological systems analyst and sustainable development expert. He has worked on ecological systems analysis, food chain and niche theory, global modeling, environmental modeling, environmental impact assessment, environmental and land use prospective, the envir ... (Full Bio)
Dr. Tariq Banuri is the Director of the Asia Centre of the Stockholm Environment Institute. His work focuses on conceptual as well as practical issues in development policy-including the integration of environmental, social, and economic dimensions into the policy framework, the analysis of the growing contribution of "knowledge institutions" (higher education, research, industrial R&D) in creating wealth, the role of institutions and governance, and the challenge of poverty eradication. He ... (Full Bio)
Paul Raskin is President of the Stockholm Environment Institute. He founded Tellus in 1976, the U.S center of the Stockholm Environment Institute in 1989, the Global Scenario Group (GSG) in 1995, and the Great Transition Initiative (GTI) in 2003. The overarching theme of his work has been envisioning and analyzing alternative scenarios of development, and identifying the strategies, policies and values for a transition toward a future of environmental sustainability and human justice. Toward t ... (Full Bio)
- “The future is always present, as a promise, a lure and a temptation.” —Karl Popper
The global transition has begun—a planetary society will take shape over the coming decades. But its outcome is in question. Current trends set the direction of departure for the journey, not its destination. Depending on how environmental and social conflicts are resolved, global development can branch into dramatically different pathways. On the dark side, it is all too easy to envision a dismal future of impoverished people, cultures and nature. Indeed, to many, this ominous possibility seems the most likely. But it is not inevitable. Humanity has the power to foresee, to choose and to act. While it may seem improbable, a transition to a future of enriched lives, human solidarity and a healthy planet is possible.
This is the story elaborated in these pages. It is a work of analysis, imagination and engagement. As analysis, it describes the historic roots, current dynamics and future perils of world development. As imagination, it offers narrative accounts of alternative long-range global scenarios, and considers their implications. As engagement, it aims to advance one of these scenarios—Great Transition—by identifying strategies, agents for change and values for a new global agenda.
The essay is the culmination of the work of the Global Scenario Group, which was convened in 1995 by the Stockholm Environment Institute as a diverse and international body to examine the requirements for a transition to sustainability. Over the years, the GSG has contributed major scenario assessments for international organizations, and collaborated with colleagues throughout the world. As the third in a trilogy, Great Transition builds on the earlier Branch Points[1], which introduced the GSG’s scenario framework, and Bending the Curve[2], which analyzed the long-term risks and prospects for sustainability within conventional development futures.
It has been two decades since the notion of “sustainable development” entered the lexicon of international jargon, inspiring countless international meetings and even some action. But it is our conviction that the first wave of sustainability activity, in progress since the Earth Summit of 1992, is insufficient to alter alarming global developments. A new wave must begin to transcend the palliatives and reforms that until now may have muted the symptoms of unsustainability, but cannot cure the disease. A new sustainability paradigm would challenge both the viability and desirability of conventional values, economic structures and social arrangements. It would offer a positive vision of a civilized form of globalization for the whole human family.
This will happen only if key sectors of world society come to understand the nature and the gravity of the challenge, and seize the opportunity to revise their agendas. Four major agents of change, acting synergistically, could drive a new sustainability paradigm. Three are global actors—intergovernmental organizations, transnational corporations and civil society acting through non-governmental organizations and spiritual communities. The fourth is less tangible, but is the critical underlying element—wide public awareness of the need for change and the spread of values that underscore quality of life, human solidarity and environmental sustainability.
Global change is accelerating and contradictions are deepening. New ways of thinking, acting and being are urgently needed. But as surely as necessity is the spur for a Great Transition, the historic opportunity to shape an equitable world of peace, freedom and sustainability is the magnet. This is the promise and lure of the twenty-first century.
Notes
- ^ Gallopín, G. A. Hammond, P. Raskin and R. Swart. 1997. Branch Points: Global Scenarios and Human Choice. Stockholm, Sweden: Stockholm Environment Institute. PoleStar Series Report No. 7.
- ^ Raskin, P., G. Gallopín, P. Gutman, A. Hammond and R. Swart 1998. Bending the Curve: Toward Global Sustainability. Stockholm, Sweden: Stockholm Environment Institute. PoleStar Series Report No. 8.
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