Great Transition: The Shape of Transition
Published: April 15, 2007, 3:55 am
Updated: April 15, 2007, 3:55 am
This article has been reviewed by the following Topic Editor:
Cutler J. ClevelandThis article is a chapter in the e-book, Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead
The original publication can be found on the Great Transition Initiative website
Figure 11. Scenarios Compared: Selected Indicators. (Source: Great Transition Initiative)
Depending on how the uncertainties of planetary transition are resolved, the global future can branch into distinct paths. The scenarios discussed in this essay are alternative stories of the future, each representing a unique combination of institutions, values, and culture. The narratives can be further elaborated with a quantitative sketch of how key indicators unfold over time. We focus on four of the scenarios—Market Forces, Policy Reform, Fortress World and Great Transition.
All scenarios begin with the same set of contemporary trends that are now driving the world system forward. Social, economic and environmental patterns then gradually diverge as they are conditioned by different events, institutional change and value choices. Market Forces is a world of accelerating economic globalization, rapid spread of dominant institutions and values, and minimal environmental and social protection—the competitive global market shapes the planetary transition. Policy Reform features government initiatives to constrain the economy in order to attain a broad set of social and environmental goals—sustainability policy shapes the planetary transition. Fortress World envisions a period of crisis leading to an authoritarian and inequitable future—tyranny shapes the global transition. In Great Transition, a connected and engaged global citizenry advances a new development paradigm that emphasizes the quality of life, human solidarity, and a strong ecological sensibility—new values shape the planetary transition.
Figure 12. Great Transition Patterns. (Source: Great Transition Initiative)
Global patterns are compared in Figure 11[1]. Market Forces are defined by counteracting tendencies. Technological innovation steadily reduces the environmental impact per unit of human activity, but the increase in the scale of human activity drives impacts higher. Economies in poor regions grow rapidly, but so do disparities between and within countries. The result is a continued erosion of environmental health and the persistence of poverty. Policy Reform “bends the curve” through the rapid deployment of alternative technology—eco-efficient industrial and agricultural practices, highly resource efficient equipment and renewable resources—and targeted programs to reduce poverty. Fortress World is a dualistic world of modern enclaves of affluence for the few, and underdeveloped areas of destitution for the many.
Great Transition includes the rapid penetration of environmentally benign technologies, as does Policy Reform, but at a more rapid pace. A second major feature also supports environmental sustainability—the shift toward less materially-intensive lifestyles. Resource requirements decrease as consumerism abates, populations stabilize, growth slows in affluent areas, and settlement patterns become more integrated and compact. At the same time, poverty levels drop, as equity between and within countries rapidly improves.
Figure 13. Overlapping Tendencies in a Great Transition. MF = Market Forces, PR = Policy Reform, GT = Great Transition, FW = Fortress World. (Source: Great Transition Initiative)
Great Transition patterns are shown in Figure 12 for “rich” and “poor” regions, essentially the OECD countries and the rest-of-the world, respectively. Population growth moderates in response to poverty eradication, universal education and greater gender equality. In affluent regions, income growth slows as people opt for shorter formal workweeks to devote more time—an increasingly valued resource—to cultural, civic and personal pursuits. Rapid investment and transfers to poor regions stimulates rapid growth and international equity. The affluent reduce the fraction of meat in diets for environmental, ethical and health considerations. National equity in most countries approaches the levels currently seen in European countries such as Austria and Denmark. Reliance on automobiles decreases in rich areas, as settlements become more integrated and alternative modes of transportation more prevalent. The energy transition ushers in the age of renewable energy, the materials transition radically reduces resource throughput and phases out toxic materials, and the agricultural transition brings greater reliance on ecological farming.
The Great Transition is a complex story. Just as aspects of all scenarios are simultaneously at play today, the world system will unfold as a mixed state as the various tendencies compete for dominance. One possibility for the phased emergence of a Great Transition is reflected in the three eras of the “history of the future” (Section 5). The overlay and sequence of scenarios is illustrated in Figure 13. Market Forces dominates until its internal contradictions lead to a global crisis, as Fortress World forces surge briefly and ineffectually. Policy Reform ascends in the wake of the crisis. Eventually the Great Transition era begins as the long-brewing popular desire for fundamental change surges.
The analysis suggests that the momentum toward an unsustainable future can be reversed, but only with great difficulty. The Great Transition assumes fundamental shifts in desired lifestyles, values and technology. Yet, even under these assumptions, it takes many decades to realign human activity with a healthy environment, make poverty obsolete, and ameliorate the deep fissures that divide people. Some climate change is irrevocable, water stress will persist in many places, extinct species will not return, and lives will be lost to deprivation.
Nevertheless, a planetary transition toward a humane, just and ecological future is possible. But the curve of development must be bent twice. A radical revision of technological means begins the transition. A reconsideration of human goals completes it. This is the promise and the lure of the global future.
Notes
- ^ Raskin, P., G. Gallopín, P. Gutman, A. Hammond and R. Swart 1998. Bending the Curve: Toward Global Sustainability. Stockholm, Sweden: Stockholm Environment Institute. PoleStar Series Report No. 8.
– Kemp-Benedict, E., C. Heaps and P. Raskin. 2002. Global Scenario Group Futures: Technical Notes. Boston: Stockholm Environment Institute-Boston.
– PoleStar (The PoleStar System). 2000. SEI-Boston.
Are you absolutely sure you want to delete this article? This process cannot be undone and is permanent.
Yes, Delete This Article
Are you absolutely sure you want to remove this article? This process cannot be undone and is permanent.
Yes, Remove This Article
Citation
Great Transition Initiative, Rob Swart, Robert W. Kates, Al Hammond, Pablo Gutman, Gilberto GallopÃn, Tariq Banuri, Paul Raskin (Lead Author);Cutler J. Cleveland (Topic Editor) "Great Transition: The Shape of Transition". In: Encyclopedia of Earth. Eds. Cutler J. Cleveland (Washington, D.C.: Environmental Information Coalition, National Council for Science and the Environment). [First published in the Encyclopedia of Earth April 15, 2007; Last revised Date April 15, 2007; Retrieved May 19, 2013 <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Great_Transition:_The_Shape_of_Transition>
The Authors
The Great Transition Initiative (GTI) is a global network for elaborating visions and strategies for a future of enriched lives, human solidarity and a healthy planet. By addressing the need for a coherent, plausible, and shared vision, GTI complements the many admirable, but fragmented, efforts to shape our common future. GTI's vision of hope challenges conventional thinking, counters pessimism, and inspires effective action and new values. The initiative builds on the work of the Global Scena ... (Full Bio)
Dr. Rob Swart graduated from Delft University of Technology in 1980 as an environmental engineer. He received his Ph.D. on climate change risk management in 1994 at Amsterdam Free University, Earth Sciences Department. He has worked on international environmental problems since 1990, primarily at the National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) (apart from 1983-1985 on natural hazards management in the Caribbean for the World Health Organization (WHO), in 1990 on climate chang ... (Full Bio)
Robert W. Kates is a geographer and independent scholar in Trenton, Maine, and University Professor (Emeritus) at Brown University. His current research focuses on long-term trends in environment, development, and population. He is Co-Convener of the international Initiative on Science and Technology for Sustainability, an Executive Editor of Environment magazine, and Visiting Scholar at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University. I ... (Full Bio)
Al Hammond is VP for Innovation and Special Projects for the World Resources Institute, charged with catalyzing and sometimes leading development of new projects, initiatives, and tools. He also directs WRI's Development Through Enterprise project, which works with foundations, development agencies, and a number of major corporations to further the use of pro-poor business strategies and digital technologies in development. Dr. Hammond has published extensively in the scientific, policy researc ... (Full Bio)
Pablo Gutman is Senior Policy Advisor at the Macroeconomics for Sustainable Development Programme Office (MPO) of the World Wildlife Fund and manages the Payment for Ecosystem Services Program. Before joining the MPO he worked for over 20 years in environmental and development issues in more than a dozen countries, and with a variety of institutions, including universities, NGOs, governments, regional and international agencies, development banks and private business. Mr. Gutman holds a degree ... (Full Bio)
Gilberto Gallopín is Regional Adviser on Environmental Policies at the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean in Santiago, Chile. He received his Ph.D. in Ecology from Cornell University in 1969 and is an ecological systems analyst and sustainable development expert. He has worked on ecological systems analysis, food chain and niche theory, global modeling, environmental modeling, environmental impact assessment, environmental and land use prospective, the envir ... (Full Bio)
Dr. Tariq Banuri is the Director of the Asia Centre of the Stockholm Environment Institute. His work focuses on conceptual as well as practical issues in development policy-including the integration of environmental, social, and economic dimensions into the policy framework, the analysis of the growing contribution of "knowledge institutions" (higher education, research, industrial R&D) in creating wealth, the role of institutions and governance, and the challenge of poverty eradication. He ... (Full Bio)
Paul Raskin is President of the Stockholm Environment Institute. He founded Tellus in 1976, the U.S center of the Stockholm Environment Institute in 1989, the Global Scenario Group (GSG) in 1995, and the Great Transition Initiative (GTI) in 2003. The overarching theme of his work has been envisioning and analyzing alternative scenarios of development, and identifying the strategies, policies and values for a transition toward a future of environmental sustainability and human justice. Toward t ... (Full Bio)
This article is a chapter in the e-book, Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead
The original publication can be found on the Great Transition Initiative website
Figure 11. Scenarios Compared: Selected Indicators. (Source: Great Transition Initiative)
Depending on how the uncertainties of planetary transition are resolved, the global future can branch into distinct paths. The scenarios discussed in this essay are alternative stories of the future, each representing a unique combination of institutions, values, and culture. The narratives can be further elaborated with a quantitative sketch of how key indicators unfold over time. We focus on four of the scenarios—Market Forces, Policy Reform, Fortress World and Great Transition.
All scenarios begin with the same set of contemporary trends that are now driving the world system forward. Social, economic and environmental patterns then gradually diverge as they are conditioned by different events, institutional change and value choices. Market Forces is a world of accelerating economic globalization, rapid spread of dominant institutions and values, and minimal environmental and social protection—the competitive global market shapes the planetary transition. Policy Reform features government initiatives to constrain the economy in order to attain a broad set of social and environmental goals—sustainability policy shapes the planetary transition. Fortress World envisions a period of crisis leading to an authoritarian and inequitable future—tyranny shapes the global transition. In Great Transition, a connected and engaged global citizenry advances a new development paradigm that emphasizes the quality of life, human solidarity, and a strong ecological sensibility—new values shape the planetary transition.
Figure 12. Great Transition Patterns. (Source: Great Transition Initiative)
Global patterns are compared in Figure 11[1]. Market Forces are defined by counteracting tendencies. Technological innovation steadily reduces the environmental impact per unit of human activity, but the increase in the scale of human activity drives impacts higher. Economies in poor regions grow rapidly, but so do disparities between and within countries. The result is a continued erosion of environmental health and the persistence of poverty. Policy Reform “bends the curve” through the rapid deployment of alternative technology—eco-efficient industrial and agricultural practices, highly resource efficient equipment and renewable resources—and targeted programs to reduce poverty. Fortress World is a dualistic world of modern enclaves of affluence for the few, and underdeveloped areas of destitution for the many.
Great Transition includes the rapid penetration of environmentally benign technologies, as does Policy Reform, but at a more rapid pace. A second major feature also supports environmental sustainability—the shift toward less materially-intensive lifestyles. Resource requirements decrease as consumerism abates, populations stabilize, growth slows in affluent areas, and settlement patterns become more integrated and compact. At the same time, poverty levels drop, as equity between and within countries rapidly improves.
Figure 13. Overlapping Tendencies in a Great Transition. MF = Market Forces, PR = Policy Reform, GT = Great Transition, FW = Fortress World. (Source: Great Transition Initiative)
Great Transition patterns are shown in Figure 12 for “rich” and “poor” regions, essentially the OECD countries and the rest-of-the world, respectively. Population growth moderates in response to poverty eradication, universal education and greater gender equality. In affluent regions, income growth slows as people opt for shorter formal workweeks to devote more time—an increasingly valued resource—to cultural, civic and personal pursuits. Rapid investment and transfers to poor regions stimulates rapid growth and international equity. The affluent reduce the fraction of meat in diets for environmental, ethical and health considerations. National equity in most countries approaches the levels currently seen in European countries such as Austria and Denmark. Reliance on automobiles decreases in rich areas, as settlements become more integrated and alternative modes of transportation more prevalent. The energy transition ushers in the age of renewable energy, the materials transition radically reduces resource throughput and phases out toxic materials, and the agricultural transition brings greater reliance on ecological farming.
The Great Transition is a complex story. Just as aspects of all scenarios are simultaneously at play today, the world system will unfold as a mixed state as the various tendencies compete for dominance. One possibility for the phased emergence of a Great Transition is reflected in the three eras of the “history of the future” (Section 5). The overlay and sequence of scenarios is illustrated in Figure 13. Market Forces dominates until its internal contradictions lead to a global crisis, as Fortress World forces surge briefly and ineffectually. Policy Reform ascends in the wake of the crisis. Eventually the Great Transition era begins as the long-brewing popular desire for fundamental change surges.
The analysis suggests that the momentum toward an unsustainable future can be reversed, but only with great difficulty. The Great Transition assumes fundamental shifts in desired lifestyles, values and technology. Yet, even under these assumptions, it takes many decades to realign human activity with a healthy environment, make poverty obsolete, and ameliorate the deep fissures that divide people. Some climate change is irrevocable, water stress will persist in many places, extinct species will not return, and lives will be lost to deprivation.
Nevertheless, a planetary transition toward a humane, just and ecological future is possible. But the curve of development must be bent twice. A radical revision of technological means begins the transition. A reconsideration of human goals completes it. This is the promise and the lure of the global future.
Notes
- ^ Raskin, P., G. Gallopín, P. Gutman, A. Hammond and R. Swart 1998. Bending the Curve: Toward Global Sustainability. Stockholm, Sweden: Stockholm Environment Institute. PoleStar Series Report No. 8.
– Kemp-Benedict, E., C. Heaps and P. Raskin. 2002. Global Scenario Group Futures: Technical Notes. Boston: Stockholm Environment Institute-Boston.
– PoleStar (The PoleStar System). 2000. SEI-Boston.
Are you absolutely sure you want to delete this article? This process cannot be undone and is permanent.
Yes, Delete This Article
Are you absolutely sure you want to remove this article? This process cannot be undone and is permanent.
Yes, Remove This Article
Site Options
0 Comments
Add Comment