Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (full report)
The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) is an international project of the Arctic Council and the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC), to evaluate and synthesize knowledge on climate variability, climate change, and increased ultraviolet radiation and their consequences. The results of the assessment were released at the ACIA International Scientific Symposium held in Reykjavik, Iceland in November 2004. The following is the full assessment:
Chapter 1: Introduction to the ACIA (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (full report))
1.1 An Introduction to the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
1.2. Why assess the impacts of changes in climate and UV radiation in the Arctic?
1.3. The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
1.4. The assessment process
1.5. The Arctic: geography, climate, ecology, and people
1.6. An outline of the assessment
Chapter 2: Arctic Climate - Past and Present
2.1 Introduction (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (full report))
2.2 Arctic atmosphere
2.3 Marine Arctic
2.4 Terrestrial Water Balance in the Arctic
2.5 Influence of the Arctic on global climate
2.6 Arctic climate variability in the twentieth century
2.7 Arctic climate variability prior to 100 years BP
2.8 Summary and key findings of ACIA on Arctic Climate - Past and Present
Chapter 3: The Changing Arctic: Indigenous Perspectives
3.1. Introduction (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (full report)) 2
3.2. Indigenous knowledge
3.3. Indigenous observations of climate change
3.4. Case studies (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (full report))
3.4.1. Northwest Alaska: the Qikiktagrugmiut
3.4.2. The Aleutian and Pribilof Islands region, Alaska
3.4.3. Arctic Athabaskan Council: Yukon First Nations
3.4.4. Denendeh: the Dene Nation’s Denendeh Environmental Working Group
3.4.5. Nunavut
3.4.6. Qaanaaq, Greenland
3.4.7. Sapmi: the communities of Purnumukka, Ochejohka, and Nuorgam
3.4.8. Climate change and the Saami
3.4.9. Kola: the Saami community of Lovozero
3.5. Indigenous perspectives and resilience
3.6. Further research needs
3.7. Conclusions (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (full report))
Chapter 4: Future Climate Change: Modeling and Scenarios for the Arctic
4.1. Introduction (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (full report)) 3
4.2. Global coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models
4.3. Simulation of observed arctic climate with the ACIA designated models
4.4. Arctic climate change scenarios for the 21st century projected by the ACIA-designated models
4.5. Regional modeling of the Arctic
4.6. Statistical downscaling approach and downscaling of AOGCM climate change projections
4.7. Outlook for improving climate change projections for the Arctic
Chapter 5: Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation
5.1. Introduction (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (full report)) 4
5.2. Factors affecting arctic ozone variability
5.3. Long-term change and variability in ozone levels
5.4. Factors affecting surface ultraviolet radiation levels in the Arctic
5.5. Long-term change and variability in surface UV irradiance
5.6. Future changes in ozone
5.7. Future changes in ultraviolet radiation
5.8. Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation in the Arctic: Gaps in knowledge, future research, and observational needs
Chapter 6: Cryosphere and Hydrology
6.1. Introduction (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (full report)) 5
6.2. Precipitation and evapotranspiration
6.3. Sea ice (Sea ice in the Arctic)
6.4. Snow cover
6.5. Glaciers and ice sheets
6.6. Permafrost (Permafrost in the Arctic)
6.7. River and lake ice
6.8. Freshwater discharge
6.9. Sea-level rise and coastal stability
Chapter 7: Arctic Tundra and Polar Desert Ecosystems
7.1 Introduction (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (full report)) 6
7.2 Late-Quaternary changes in arctic terrestrial ecosystems, climate, and ultraviolet radiation levels
7.3 Species responses to changes in climate and ultraviolet-B radiation in the Arctic
7.3.1 Implications of current species distributions for future biotic change
7.3.2 General characteristics of arctic species and their adaptations in the context of changes in climate and ultraviolet-B radiation levels
7.3.3 Phenotypic responses of arctic species to changes in climate and ultraviolet-B radiation
7.3.4 Genetic responses of arctic species to changes in climate and ultraviolet-B radiation levels
7.3.5 Recent and projected changes in arctic species distributions and potential ranges
7.4 Effects of changes in climate and UV radiation levels on structure and function of arctic ecosystems in the short and long term
7.4.1 Ecosystem structure
7.4.2 Ecosystem function
7.5 Effects of climate change on landscape and regional processes and feedbacks to the climate system
7.6 Synthesis: Scenarios of projected changes in the four ACIA regions for 2020, 2050, and 2080
7.7 Uncertainties and recommendations
Chapter 8: Freshwater Ecosystems and Fisheries
8.1. Introduction (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (full report)) 7
8.2. Freshwater ecosystems in the Arctic
8.3. Historical changes in freshwater ecosystems
8.4. Climate change effects
8.4.1. Broad-scale effects on freshwater systems
8.4.2. Effects on hydro-ecology of contributing basins
8.4.3. Effects on general hydro-ecology
8.4.4. Changes in aquatic biota and ecosystem structure and function
8.5. Climate change effects on arctic fish, fisheries, and aquatic wildlife
8.5.1. Information required to project responses of arctic fish
8.5.2. Approaches to projecting climate change effects on arctic fish populations
8.5.3. Climate change effects on arctic freshwater fish populations
8.5.4. Effects of climate change on arctic anadromous fish
8.5.5. Impacts on arctic freshwater and anadromous fisheries
8.5.6. Impacts on aquatic birds and mammals
8.6. Ultraviolet radiation effects on freshwater ecosystems
8.7. Global change and contaminants
8.8. Key findings, science gaps, and recommendations
Chapter 9: Marine Systems
9.1. Introduction (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (full report)) 8
9.2. Physical oceanography
9.2.1. General features (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (full report))
9.2.2. Sea ice (Sea ice effect on marine systems in the Arctic)
9.2.3. Ocean processes of climatic importance
9.2.4. Variability in hydrographic properties and currents
9.2.5. Anticipated changes in physical conditions
9.3. Biota
9.3.1. General description of the Arctic biota community
9.3.2. Physical factors mediating ecological change
9.3.3. Past variability – interannual to decadal
9.3.4. Future change – processes and impacts on biota
9.4. Effects of changes in ultraviolet radiation
9.5. The carbon cycle and climate change
9.6. Key findings (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (full report))
9.7. Gaps in knowledge and research needs
Chapter 10: Principles of Conserving the Arctic’s Biodiversity
10.1 Introduction
10.2 Conservation of arctic ecosystems and species
10.2.1 Marine environments
10.2.2 Freshwater environments
10.2.3 Environments north of the treeline
10.2.4 Arctic boreal forest environments
10.2.5 Human-modified habitats
10.2.6 Conservation of arctic species
10.2.7 Incorporating traditional knowledge
10.2.8 Implications for biodiversity conservation
10.3 Human impacts on the biodiversity of the Arctic
10.4 Effects of climate change on the biodiversity of the Arctic
10.5 Managing biodiversity conservation in a changing environment
Chapter 11. Management and Conservation of Wildlife in a Changing Arctic Environment
11.1 Introduction (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (full report)) 9
11.2 Management and conservation of wildlife in the Arctic
11.3 Climate change and terrestrial wildlife management
11.3.1 Russian Arctic and sub-Arctic
11.3.2 The Canadian North
11.3.3 The Fennoscandian North
11.3.4 The Alaskan Arctic
11.4 Management and conservation of marine mammals and seabirds in the Arctic
11.5 Critical elements of wildlife management in an Arctic undergoing change
Chapter 12. Hunting, herding, fishing, and gathering: indigenous peoples and renewable resource use in the Arctic
12.1 Introduction (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (full report)) 10
12.2 Present uses of living marine and terrestrial resources
12.2.1 Indigenous peoples, animals, and climate in the Arctic
12.2.2 Mixed economies
12.2.3 Renewable resource use, resource development, and global processes
12.2.4 Renewable resource use and climate change
12.2.5 Responding to climate change
12.3 Understanding climate change impacts through case studies
12.3.1 Canadian Western Arctic: the Inuvialuit of Sachs Harbour
12.3.2 Canadian Inuit in Nunavut
12.3.3 The Yamal Nenets of northwest Siberia
12.3.4 Indigenous peoples of the Russian North
12.3.5 Indigenous caribou systems of North America
Chapter 13: Fisheries and Aquaculture
13.1 Introduction (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (full report)) 11
13.2 Northeast Atlantic – Barents and Norwegian Seas
13.3 Central North Atlantic – Iceland and Greenland
13.4 Newfoundland and Labrador Seas, Northeastern Canada
13.5 North Pacific – Bering Sea
13.6. Synthesis and key findings
13.7. Research recommendations
Chapter 14: Forests, Land Management, and Agriculture
14.1. Introduction (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (full report)) 12
14.2. The boreal forest: importance and relationship to climate
14.3. Land tenure and management in the boreal region
14.4. Use and evaluation of the ACIA scenarios
14.5. Agriculture (Agriculture in the Arctic)
14.6. Tree rings and past climate
14.7. Direct climate effects on tree growth
14.8. Climate change and insects as a forest disturbance
14.9. Climate change and fire
14.10. Climate change in relation to carbon uptake and carbon storage
14.11. Climate change and forest distribution
14.12. Effects of ultraviolet-B on forest vegetation
14.13. Critical research needs
Chapter 15: Human Health
15.1. Introduction (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (full report)) 13
15.2. Socio-cultural conditions, health status, and demography
15.3. Potential impacts of direct mechanisms of climate change on human health
15.4. Potential impacts of indirect mechanisms of climate change on human health
15.5. Environmental change and social, cultural, and mental health
15.6. Developing a community response to climate change and health
15.7. Conclusions and recommendations (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (full report)) (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (full report))
Chapter 16: Infrastructure: Buildings, Support Systems, and Industrial Facilities
16.1 Introduction (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (full report)) 14
16.2. Physical environment and processes related to infrastructure
16.2.1. Observed changes in air temperature
16.2.2. Permafrost (Permafrost and infrastructure in the Arctic)
16.2.3. Natural hazards
16.2.4. Coastal environment
16.2.5. Arctic Ocean (Arctic ocean, climate and infrastructure)
16.3. Infrastructure in the Arctic
16.4. Engineering design for a changing climate
16.5. Gaps in knowledge and research needs (Gaps in knowledge and research needs for infrastructure in the Arctic)
Chapter 17: Climate Change in the Context of Multiple Stressors and Resilience
17.1. Introduction (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (full report)) 15
17.2. Conceptual approaches to vulnerability assessments
17.2.1. A framework for analyzing vulnerability
17.2.2. Focusing on interactive changes and stresses in the Arctic
17.2.3. Identifying coping and adaptation strategies
17.3. Methods and models for vulnerability analysis
17.4. Understanding and assessing vulnerabilities through case studies
17.4.1. Candidate vulnerability case studies
17.4.2. A more advanced vulnerability case study
17.5. Insights gained and implications for future vulnerability assessments
Chapter 18: Summary and Synthesis of the ACIA
18.1. Introduction
18.2. A summary of ACIA conclusions
18.3. A synthesis of projected impacts in the four regions
18.4. Cross-cutting issues in the Arctic
18.5. Improving future assessments
18.6. Conclusions (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (full report)) 2
