Conceptual approaches to climate change vulnerability assessments
This is Section 17.2 of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. Lead Authors: James J. McCarthy, Marybeth Long Martello; Contributing Authors: Robert Corell, Noelle Eckley Selin, Shari Fox, Grete Hovelsrud-Broda, Svein Disch Mathiesen, Colin Polsky, Henrik Selin, Nicholas J.C.Tyler; Corresponding Authors: Kirsti Strøm Bull, Inger Maria Gaup Eira, Nils Isak Eira, Siri Eriksen, Inger Hanssen-Bauer, Johan Klemet Kalstad, Christian Nellemann, Nils Oskal, Erik S. Reinert, Douglas Siegel-Causey, Paal Vegar Storeheier, Johan Mathis Turi
Large-scale studies of climate impacts have begun to examine the vulnerability of social and ecological systems to climate change.The seminal work of Timmerman  provided intellectual underpinning for linking the concepts of vulnerability, resilience, and climate change. Examples of recent projects that incorporate these perspectives include the IPCC (particularly the contribution of Working Group II to the Third Scientific Assessment), the Assessments of Impacts of and Adaptation to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors (AIACC) implemented by the United Nations Environment Programme, the Finnish global change research projects FIGARE and SILMU, the European Commission project on Tundra Degradation in the Russian Arctic (TUNDRA), the Norwegian project NORKLIMA, the US National Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the United States, and the Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) Program under the United States Environmental Protection Agency. Some of these assessments were based on published research, and as such are limited in their completeness with respect to their spatial coverage, and especially to their inclusiveness of other stressors that can interact with climate to influence the vulnerability of human–environment systems. Other assessments are underway, and the surge in vulnerability research over the last few years will ensure that future climate impact assessments are more complete with respect to interactions with other stressors.
Vulnerability analysis is rooted in a long history, and in research traditions that encompass work on risk–hazards–disasters, climate impacts, food security, national security, and resilience. Much of the applied hazards, climate impact, and food security research to date has focused on the source of and potential exposure to a hazard, and has sought to understand the magnitude, duration, and frequency of this hazard and the sensitivity of the exposed system.
It is common to distinguish between impacts and vulnerability perspectives by saying that the former focuses more on system sensitivities and stops short of specifying whether or not a given combination of stress and sensitivity will result in an effective adaptation. The latter emphasizes the factors that constrain or enable a coupled human–environment system to adapt to a stress. Another distinction that has been drawn between climate impact and vulnerability assessments is that the former proceeds by examining a climate event and the stresses that are exerted upon an exposure unit to produce critical downstream outcomes. The latter, by contrast, considers the climate event in the context of other stresses and perturbations that together produce impacts from compound events.
These distinctions are, however, to some degree oversimplifications, since a lack of emphasis on adaptation applies more to past empirical studies of climate change impacts than to the conceptual underpinnings of such studies. Adaptation has long been at the heart of the debate on reducing vulnerability to environmental stresses. Even the early models on climate change impacts consider the importance of adaptation, and the same applies to the broader, related literature on risk/hazards and food security. Parry and Carter also acknowledge the seminal ideas of Kates on this topic and go on to discuss the evolution from a climate impact approach to a climate interaction approach.They describe how the severe economic hardship experienced by Canadian prairie farmers in the 1930s arose as a result of interaction among multiple factors. “Economics, weather and farming technology interacted to create a severe economic and social impact that was perhaps preconditioned by the Depression but triggered by drought.”
Thus, increasing interest in “global change vulnerability” is not so much the result of a revolution in ideas – although the theoretical bases are maturing – but more a response to a general dissatisfaction with the ways in which adaptive capacity has been captured in empirical research and the associated need to reconnect with this concept if climate impact and global change models are to improve.
Increasingly, studies of vulnerability go beyond understanding the behavior of a stress and the degree to which an exposed system reacts adversely or beneficially.These studies also investigate (1) ways in which the exposed system might respond to, intensify, and/or ameliorate the effects of multiple stresses; and (2) why the same hazard might affect different systems in different ways and what system characteristics (including political economy, social structures and institutions) help to explain this variation.The concept of resilience in ecological studies has also informed treatment of adaptive capacity in vulnerability assessment. Resilience generally refers to the ability of a system to return to a reference state or remain within a range of desirable states following a perturbation. Berkes and Jolly have pointed out that the concept of resilience has three defining characteristics. It is a measure of: the amount of change the system can experience and still retain the same controls on function and structure; the degree to which the system is capable of selforganization; and the systems’ ability to sustain and increase its capacity for adaptation.
Similarly, adaptive capacity refers to ecosystem flexibility and social system responsiveness in the face of disturbances. According to one line of thought in political ecology, for example, adaptive capacity derives from human ecology of production, entitlements pertaining to market exchanges, and political economy.These factors depend, for example, on resources available to a social group, the ability to sell these resources, the selling price, and access to markets. In addition, social, institutional, and political conditions might affect the ability of a social system to utilize resources or make other adjustments in overcoming the effects of a disaster such as drought. Initiatives such as the Management of Social Transformations Programme’s Circumpolar Coping Processes Project (MOST CCPP) advances understanding of human responses to environmental and other forms of change. MOST CCPP is a cross-disciplinary network comprising participants from Norway, Finland, northwest Russia, Denmark, Faroe Islands, Greenland, Iceland, Canada, and Sweden.This project is a comparative research endeavor that examines ways in which local authorities, civil society actors, and enterprise networks cope locally and regionally with global technological, economic, and environmental changes.
Researchers are also increasingly attentive to the socioecological, multi-scalar, and dynamic nature of vulnerability. Studies aimed at understanding the vulnerability of particular places are forgoing the tendency to treat social and biophysical vulnerability as separate conditions.They are instead examining the vulnerability of the coupled human–environment system with placebased approaches.
In addition, conditions and phenomena spanning global, national, and local levels can have important implications for the vulnerability of specific people and areas. For example, the globalization of markets, technological innovations originating abroad, changes in national policy, and the condition of local infrastructure could all potentially increase or decrease the vulnerability of a particular household or community to drought or flood.The ever-changing character of biogeophysical, environmental, institutional, economic, and political processes that influence human–environment systems requires that vulnerability be treated as a process. In its simplest static state vulnerability can be seen as the residual of change after considering the resilience and adaptive capacity of a system. However, the dynamic nature of these processes requires that vulnerability also be considered as an integral part of the change rather than external to it.
Chapter 17: Climate Change in the Context of Multiple Stressors and Resilience
17.2. Conceptual approaches to vulnerability assessments
17.2.1. A framework for analyzing vulnerability
17.2.2. Focusing on interactive changes and stresses in the Arctic
17.2.3. Identifying coping and adaptation strategies
17.3. Methods and models for vulnerability analysis
17.4. Understanding and assessing vulnerabilities through case studies
17.4.1. Candidate vulnerability case studies
17.4.2. A more advanced vulnerability case study
17.5. Insights gained and implications for future vulnerability assessments
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