Variability in hydrographic properties and currents in the Arctic

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Published: February 9, 2010, 3:18 am
Updated: May 7, 2012, 6:04 pm
Author: International Arctic Science Committee
Topic Editor: Mark McGinley
Topics:
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This is Section 9.2.4 of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
Lead Author: Harald Loeng; Contributing Authors: Keith Brander, Eddy Carmack, Stanislav Denisenko, Ken Drinkwater, Bogi Hansen, Kit Kovacs, Pat Livingston, Fiona McLaughlin, Egil Sakshaug; Consulting Authors: Richard Bellerby, Howard Browman,Tore Furevik, Jacqueline M. Grebmeier, Eystein Jansen, Steingrimur Jónsson, Lis Lindal Jørgensen, Svend-Aage Malmberg, Svein Østerhus, Geir Ottersen, Koji Shimada

Ocean climate changes on geological time scales in the Arctic are briefly discussed in Box 9.3.

Box 9.3.Arctic climate – a long-term perspective

At the start of large-scale glaciation around 3 million years ago, the Arctic was relatively warm with forests growing along the shores of the Arctic Ocean[1]. About 2.75 million years ago a marked phase of global cooling set in, leading to a widespread expansion of ice sheets across northern Eurasia and North America[2]. Before this marked cooling, climates were only cold enough to sustain glaciers on Greenland, indicating that the ocean was warmer and the sea-ice cover less than at present[3]. This cooling is believed due to reduced northward heat transport to the Arctic. After this cooling event, multi-year sea-ice cover and cold conditions probably existed throughout the Arctic, however, less freshwater influx may have reduced surface ocean stratification and open areas and polynyas may have prevailed. Lower sea level also left major portions of the shelf areas exposed.

The next major change occurred approximately 1 million years ago. Glacial episodes became longer, with a distinct 100000 year periodicity and glaciation more severe.Yet between the glacial periods, warmer but short interglacial periods persisted, due to stronger inflow of warm Atlantic waters to the Nordic Seas[4]. The long-term effects of sea-level change through ice sheet erosion affected the ocean exchange with the Arctic. For example, water mass exchange could take place between the Atlantic and the Arctic through the Barents Sea when it changed from a land area to a sea.

After the last glacial period, which ended about 11000 years ago, the marginal ice zone was farther north than at present since the summer insolation was higher in the Northern Hemisphere than now. In the early phase of the postglacial period (Holocene), 8000 to 6000 years ago, mollusks with affinities for ice-free waters were common in Spitsbergen and along the east coast of Greenland. Summer temperatures over Greenland and the Canadian Arctic were at their highest, 3 ºC above present values[5]. The sea-ice cover expanded southward again in the Barents and Greenland Seas 6000 to 4000 years ago, concomitant with the expansion of glaciers in Europe.This expansion was most likely to be a response to the diminishing summer insolation.

Superimposed on these long-term trends, there is evidence of high amplitude millennial- to century-scale climate variability.The millennial-scale events are recorded globally and shifts in temperature and precipitation occurred with startling speed, with changes in annual mean temperature of 5 to 10 ºC over one to two decades[6]. These abrupt climate changes occurred repeatedly during glacial periods with a temporal spacing of 2000 to 10000 years.The latest was the Younger Dryas cooling about 12000 years ago, which was followed by two cold phases of lower amplitude, the last 8200 years ago. Cooling periods in the regions surrounding the Arctic were associated with widespread drought over Asia and Africa, as well as changes in the Pacific circulation. Mid-latitude regions were most affected, while the amplitudes of these climate shifts were lower in the high Arctic.

The rapid climate shifts were accompanied by changes in the deep-water formation in the Arctic and the northward protrusion of warm water towards the Arctic[7], yet it would be wrong to say that they shut off entirely during the rapid change events. Instead they were characterized by shifts in the strength and in the depth and location of ocean overturning.The high amplitude climate shifts are hypothesized to be caused by, or at least amplified by, freshwater release from calving and melting of ice sheets in the Arctic. Bond et al.[8] identified events when icebergs originating from Greenland were more strongly advected into the North Atlantic and proposed that changes in insolation may have been the cause. Some of these events coincide with known climate periods, such as the Medieval Warm Period and an increase in icebergs during the following cooling period, known as the Little Ice Age.Temperature data from the Greenland Ice Sheet show a general warmer phase (800 to 1200 AD) and a general cold phase (1300 to 1900 AD) during these periods, respectively[9]. Proxy data with higher temporal resolution from the Nordic Seas suggest similar temperature trends there, but it is clear that neither the Medieval Warm Period nor the Little Ice Age was monotonously warm or cold[10].

Seasonal variability

Upper-layer waters in the Arctic Ocean that are open or seasonally ice-free experience seasonal fluctuations in temperature due to the annual cycle of atmospheric heating and cooling. The extent of the summer temperature rise depends on the amount of heat used to melt sea ice (and hence not used for heating the water) and the depth of the surface mixed layer. For shallow mixed layers caused by ice melt, surface temperatures can rise substantially during the summer. Seasonal temperature ranges in the near-surface waters generally tend to increase southward. The melting and formation of sea ice leads to seasonal changes in salinity. Salt is rejected from newly formed ice, which increases the salinity of the underlying water. This water sinks as it is denser than its surroundings. Salinity changes in some coastal regions are governed more by the annual cycle of freshwater runoff than by ice, e.g., along the Norwegian coast, in the Bering Sea, and Hudson Bay. Except for areas in which brine rejection from sea-ice formation occurs annually, seasonal changes in temperature and salinity below the mixed layer are usually small.

Interannual to decadal variability

Variability observed at interannual to decadal time scales is important as a guide for predicting the possible effect of future climate change scenarios on the physical oceanography of the Arctic.

Arctic Ocean

Long-term oceanographic time series from the Arctic Ocean deep basins are scarce. Data collections have been infrequent, although there was a major increase in shipboard observations during the 1990s[11]. These efforts identified an increased presence of Atlantic-derived upper ocean water relative to Pacific-derived water[12]. Temperatures and salinities rose, especially in the Eurasian Basin. The rise in temperature for the Atlantic waters of the arctic basins ranged from 0.5 to 2° C. The major cause of the warming is attributed to increased transport of Atlantic waters in the early 1990s and to the higher temperatures of the inflowing Atlantic water[13]. At the same time, the front between the Atlantic- and Pacific character waters moved 600 kilometers (km) closer to the Pacific from the Lomonosov Ridge to the Alpha-Mendeleyev Ridge[14]. This represented an approximate 20% increase in the extent of the Atlantic-derived surface waters in the Arctic Ocean. In addition, the Atlantic Halocline Layer, which insulates the Atlantic waters from the near-surface polar waters, became thinner[15]. As the Atlantic-derived waters increased their dominance in the Arctic Ocean, there was an observed shrinking of the Beaufort Gyre and a weakening and eastward deflection of the Transpolar Drift[16]. These were shown to be a direct response to changes in the wind forcing over the Arctic associated with variability in the Arctic Oscillation (AO)[17].

Barents Sea

Inflow to the Arctic via the Barents Sea undergoes large variability on interannual to decadal time scales[18]. The inflows change in response to varying atmospheric pressure patterns, both local[19] and large-scale, as represented by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with a larger transport associated with a higher index[20]. The Shetland Branch of the Atlantic inflow (Fig. 9.7; also known as the Norwegian Atlantic Current) is a major contributor to the inflow to the Barents Sea. It is strongly correlated with the North Atlantic wind stress curl with the current lagging the wind stress curl by 15 months[21].

Fig. 9.7. The Arctic Mediterranean has four current branches that import water into the upper layers; three from the Atlantic (the Iceland, Faroe, and Shetland branches), and one from the Pacific. The outflow occurs partly at depth through the overflows and partly as surface (or upper-layer) outflow through the Canadian Archipelago and the East Greenland Current. The numbers indicate volume flux in Sverdrups (106 m3/s) rounded to half-integer values and are based on observations, with the exception of the surface outflow, which is adjusted to balance[22].

Variability in both the volume and temperature of the incoming Atlantic water to the Barents Sea strongly affects sea temperatures. A series of hydrographic stations along a line north of the Kola Peninsula in northwest Russia has been monitored for over 100 years. Annual mean temperatures for this section show relatively warm conditions since the 1990s. It was also warm between 1930 and 1960, but generally cold prior to the 1930s and through much of the period between 1960 and 1990 (Fig. 9.8). Since the mid-1970s there has been a trend of increasing temperature, although the warmest decade during the last century was the 1930s[23]. Also evident are the strong near-decadal oscillations since the 1960s and prior to the 1950s. Annual ocean temperatures in the Barents Sea are correlated with the NAO; higher temperatures are generally associated with the positive phase of the NAO[24]. The correlation is higher after the early 1970s, which is attributed to an eastward shift in the Icelandic Low[25].

Fig. 9.8. Annual and five-year running means in sea temperature (at 50–200 m) from a series of hydrographic stations along a line north of the Kola Peninsula in northwest Russia (based on data supplied by the Knipovich Polar Research Institute of Marine Fisheries and Oceanography, Russia).

Willem Barentsz was the first to provide information on sea ice conditions in the northern Barents Sea when he discovered Spitsbergen in 1596[26]. Observations became more frequent when whaling and sealing started early in the 17th century[27] and since 1740 there have been almost annual observations of sea-ice conditions. Typically, interannual variation in the position of the monthly mean ice edges is about 3 to 4 degrees of latitude. Variations on decadal and centennial scales are also observed. In all probability, the extreme northern position of the ice edge in summer coincides with an increased influx of Atlantic water entering the Arctic Ocean north of Svalbard. Complete disintegration of the sea ice in the Barents Sea proper (south of 80°N) was reported between 1660 and 1750. A similar northern retreat of the sea ice was seen again in recent decades (after 1937). In contrast, sea ice completely covered the Barents Sea, as well as the Greenland and Iceland Seas, and the northern part of the Norwegian Sea, during 1881. This coincided with the lowest mean winter air temperature on record.

Northern North Atlantic

Fig. 9.9. Observed time–latitude variability in surface air temperature anomalies north of 30°N[28].

In the 1910s and 1920s, a major and rapid atmospheric warming took place over the North Atlantic and Arctic, with the greatest changes occurring north of 60°N[29] (Fig. 9.9). Warm conditions generally continued through to the 1950s and 1960s. Sea ice (Sea ice in the Arctic) thinned and the maximum extent of the seasonal ice edge retracted northward[30]. Increases in surface temperature were reported over the northern North Atlantic[31] and throughout the water column over the shelf off West Greenland[32]. Higher temperatures between the 1930s and 1960s were also observed in the Barents Sea along the Kola Section (Fig. 9.8). The cause of this warming is uncertain although a recent hypothesis suggests that it was due to an increase in the transport of the North Atlantic Current into the Arctic[33].

At the end of this warm period, water temperatures declined rapidly. For example, at a monitoring site off northern Iceland, temperatures (at 50 m) suddenly declined in 1964 by 1 to 2° C[34]. This was caused by the replacement of the warm Atlantic inflow by the cold waters of the East Greenland Current. Also, the front to the east of Iceland between the warm Atlantic waters and the cold arctic water moved southward. These observations signified that the cooling had coincided with large-scale changes in circulation.

In the Labrador Sea, temperatures reached maximum values in the 1960s and did not decline substantially until the early 1970s. Shelf temperatures on the western Grand Banks at a site 10 km off St. John’s, Newfoundland have been monitored since the late 1940s. Low-frequency subsurface temperature trends at this site are representative of the Grand Banks to southern Labrador[35]. Temperatures continued a general decline superimposed upon by quasi-decadal oscillations until the mid-1990s. Temperature minima were observed near the mid- 1970s, mid-1980s, and mid-1990s that correspond to peaks in the NAO index[36]. After the mid-1990s, temperatures rose. Winter temperatures off Newfoundland are negatively correlated with those in the Barents Sea (Fig. 9.10) and linked through their opposite responses to the NAO. The Barents Sea and Newfoundland temperatures however have only been closely linked to the NAO since the 1960s[37].

During the 1970s, an upper-layer surface salinity minimum was observed in different regions of the North Atlantic[38]. The generally accepted explanation for this observation was given by Dickson et al.[39]. During the 1960s, an intense and persistent high-pressure anomaly became established over Greenland. As the northerly [[wind]s] increased through to a peak in the late 1960s, there was a pulse of sea ice (Sea ice in the Arctic) and freshwater (Freshwater discharge in the Arctic) out of the Arctic via Fram Strait with the result that the waters in the East Greenland Current and the East Icelandic Current became colder and fresher. In addition, convective overturning north of Iceland and in the Labrador Sea was minimal, preserving the fresh characteristics of the upper layer. Beginning in the Greenland Sea in 1968, significant quantities of freshwater were advected via Denmark Strait into the Subpolar Gyre. The low salinity waters (called the Great Salinity Anomaly) were tracked around the Labrador Sea, across the Atlantic, and around the Nordic Sea before returning to the Greenland Sea by 1981–1982. Similar transport of low salinity features around the Subpolar Gyre was suggested to have occurred in the early 1900s[40] and in the mid-1980s[41]. Belkin et al.[42] proposed that the source of the mid-1980s salinity anomaly originated in Baffin Bay.

Fig. 9.10. Five-year average winter temperature anomalies (relative to the mean for 1971 to 2000) for the Barents Sea (the Kola Section off northwestern Russia, 0–200 m mean) and the Labrador Sea (Station 27 on the western Grand Bank off Newfoundland, near bottom at 175 m).

The deep water of the Norwegian Sea has for a long time been considered to have a relatively stable temperature. However, since the mid-1980s there has been a steady increase of more than 0.05° C for the waters between 1,200 m and 2,000 m, and even the deepest water has shown a small temperature increase[43]. In the surface layer there has been a steady decrease in salinity. In the deep, south flowing waters of the Greenland Sea there has been a 40-year trend toward decreasing salinity and this trend toward decreasing salinity has spread throughout much of the northern North Atlantic[44]. Dickson et al.[45] suggest this may correspond to a general freshening of the whole Atlantic.

Interannual variability in the depth of convection in the Greenland Sea[46] and Labrador Sea[47] depends upon wind, air temperature, upper layer salinity and temperature, and the pre-winter density structure. Dickson et al.[48] and Dickson[49] found the convective activity in the two areas to be of opposite phase, linked to shifting atmospheric circulation as reflected in the NAO index. In the late 1960s when the NAO index was low, there was intense convection in the Greenland Sea and little convection in the Labrador Sea owing to reduced winds and freshwater accumulation at the surface. In contrast, in the late 1990s when the NAO index was high, the reverse occurred with deep convection in the Labrador Sea and minimal convection in the Greenland Sea. Deep-reaching convection in the Greenland Sea contributes to overflow waters but Hansen et al.[50] did not observe any NAO-like variations in their 50-year time series of Faroe Bank Channel overflow. However, deep convection is only one of several ventilation processes affecting the overflow (see Section 9.2.3.4 (Variability in hydrographic properties and currents in the Arctic), on vertical transfer of water). Hansen et al.[51] did however find a general decreasing trend in the overflow, as was observed for the overflows across the southern part of the Iceland– Faroe Ridge and the Wyville–Thompson Ridge[52]. In the 1990s, higher temperatures offset the corresponding reduced Atlantic inflow to the Nordic Seas such that there was no net change in the heat flux but Turrell et al.[53] suggested that a reduced salt flux may account for some of the freshening observed in large parts of the Nordic Seas.

Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait

The timing of the sea-ice advance and retreat in Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait varies between years by up to a month from their long-term means. This sea-ice variability has been linked to dominant large-scale atmospheric modes, in particular the NAO and the El Niño– Southern Oscillation (ENSO)[54]. In years of high positive NAO and ENSO indices, heavy ice conditions occur in Hudson Bay as well as in Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea. This increase in sea ice is attributed to cold air masses and stronger northwesterly winds over the region. Between 1981 and the late 1990s air temperatures over Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait increased. This led to an earlier breakup of sea ice[55] and an earlier spring runoff of river discharge into Hudson Bay[56].

Bering Sea

At decadal and longer timescales, the Bering Sea responds to two dominant climate patterns: the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the AO (see Chapter 2 (Variability in hydrographic properties and currents in the Arctic) for a detailed discussion). The PDO is strongly coupled to the sea level pressure pattern with stronger [[wind]s] in the Aleutian low-pressure system during its positive phase[57]. It has a major impact on the southern Bering Sea. Thus the 40- to 50-year oscillation in the PDO led to higher sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific from 1925 to 1947 and 1977 to 1998, and cold conditions in 1899 to 1924 and 1948 to 1976. The AO had major shifts around 1977 and 1989 and there has been a long-term strengthening from the 1960s through the 1990s. Heavy sea-ice years in the Bering Sea generally coincide with negative values of the PDO, such as occurred in the early 1970s. The late 1970s and 1980 were warm years with reduced sea-ice cover. Heavy sea ice was again observed in the 1990s, but was not as extensive as in the early 1970s. In the 1990s, there was a shift toward warmer spring [[temperature]s] that resulted in sea ice in the Bering Sea melting one week earlier than in the 1980s, and the snow melting up to two weeks earlier[58].

Chapter 9: Marine Systems
9.1. Introduction (Variability in hydrographic properties and currents in the Arctic)
9.2. Physical oceanography
9.2.1. General features (Variability in hydrographic properties and currents in the Arctic)
9.2.2. Sea ice (Sea ice effect on marine systems in the Arctic)
9.2.3. Ocean processes of climatic importance
9.2.4. Variability in hydrographic properties and currents
9.2.5. Anticipated changes in physical conditions
9.3. Biota
9.3.1. General description of the Arctic biota community
9.3.2. Physical factors mediating ecological change
9.3.3. Past variability – interannual to decadal
9.3.4. Future change – processes and impacts on biota
9.4. Effects of changes in ultraviolet radiation
9.5. The carbon cycle and climate change
9.6. Key findings (Variability in hydrographic properties and currents in the Arctic)
9.7. Gaps in knowledge and research needs

References

Citation

Committee, I. (2012). Variability in hydrographic properties and currents in the Arctic. Retrieved from http://editors.eol.org/eoearth/wiki/Variability_in_hydrographic_properties_and_currents_in_the_Arctic
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